Many National Meteorological and
Hydrometeorological Services (NMHSs) are actively pursuing or considering the
development of impact-based forecasting and warning (IBFW) services. This
represents an explicit attempt to couple traditional estimates of the
likelihood of hazardous meteorological or hydrometeorological events with
understanding of societal exposure and vulnerability that are fundamental
determinants of risk outcomes or impacts. IBFW services involve the estimation
of expected consequences and risk outcomes of particular weather events, or
sequences and combinations of weather events. This information is communicated
to the public and partner organizations involved in the protection of public
health and safety, prevention of property and environmental damage, and
reduction in the disruption of critical services and attendant social and
economic activity.
In support of individual member efforts,
the WMO, through its Services Commission experts, produced primary (WMO 2015)
and updated (WMO 2021) guidelines on multi-hazard IBFW services. While such
efforts are laudable and capture current best practices, existing IBFW services
and the underlying assumptions associated with IBFW in general could benefit
from further critical examination by social and interdisciplinary scientists.
The expert and practitioner members of WMO’s WWRP HIWeather Project are
well-suited to take on this challenge by working with and complementing efforts
by other national agencies and international groups, including WMO’s Services
Commission expert team for impact-based forecasts and warnings and WMO’s
initiatives towards strengthening hydrological services. The IBFW project
remains an important and outstanding task of the WMO WWRP HIWeather Project, as
identified in its implementation plan, particularly through the cross-cutting
activity of impact forecasting.
Significant progress has been made by
members of the HIWeather Project in understanding the challenges and barriers
for IBFW implementation (Kox et al., 2018a, 2018b, 2021; Potter et al., 2021),
exploring data needs and data sources for implementation and evaluation
(Harrison et al., 2020, 2021, 2022a, 2022b; Spruce et al., 2020, 2021),
developing and evaluating hazard and impact models (Hemingway et al., 2019;
Robbins & Titley, 2018), and understanding public perceptions of IBFWs
(Potter et al., 2018; Taylor et al.,
2019; Weyrich et al., 2018, 2019, 2020a, 2020b). This research provides
the building blocks upon which further work towards appropriate and
cost-effective development and implementation of IBFW services can commence.
Research gaps and questions have been identified from these investigations that
require collation and further exploration.
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