User-oriented Evaluation
Research Themes

Research will focus on the profile of accuracy and value through the forecasting, warning & communication chain with an emphasis on the information required by decision makers to build their trust in the information they receive. An inter-comparison project will assess whether recent advances in meteorological verification can usefully be extended to more variables, including the hazards themselves for which allowing for observation quality will be important. A white paper will be published and new techniques will be evaluated in Forecast Demonstration Projects. Together with the Communication theme, a catalogue of post-event reviews of the effectiveness of forecasts & warnings will be compiled. Targeted workshops and conference sessions will be held to involve users and social scientists in exploring metrics of the value of forecasts & warnings in user decision making. Evaluation requires observations so this theme will work with the Human Impacts, Vulnerability and Risk theme to investigate how to use new sources of data in verification. Research on economic benefit of forecasts & warnings, will also be carried out through workshops involving economists and private sector meteorologists, leading to the publication of a white paper.

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