Leads: Helen Titley

Ensemble forecasting of tropical cyclones (TCs) is vital in capturing the situation-dependent uncertainty in the track and intensity forecasts for existing storms, and in providing probabilistic information about tropical cyclone genesis, but there is huge potential to increase the pull through of ensemble-based uncertainty and probabilistic data in to operational TC forecasts and warnings.

A new study is underway to investigate ensemble-based predictability of flooding in TCs using the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS).