Leads: Shira Raveh-Rubin, Linus Magnusson, Michael Riemer
Objectives: Assess the predictability of different ingredients to HIW events as a function of lead time and identify the physical processes that limit predictability (see Di Muzio et al, 2019 for tropical-cyclone-like Mediterranean cyclones). In collaboration with the Multiscale Forecasting theme, assess the role of assimilating high-resolution data to capture the mesoscale dynamics and improve short-term prediction. Starting with high-impact weather related to dry intrusions (Catto and Ravel-Rubin, 2019; Ravel-Rubin and Catto, 2019), develop general recommendations how to assess this insight for other types of high-impact weather.
Linus Magnusson finalized his report: ECMWF Severe Event Catalogue for Evaluation of Multi-scale Prediction of Extreme Weather, which can be found here: https://www.ecmwf.int/en/elibrary/19230-ecmwf-severe-event-catalogue-evaluation-multi-scale-prediction-extreme-weather
In the spring issue of ECMWF Newsletter, an article about the February storms in north-western Europe highlighted new forecast products for extreme weather on various time scales: https://www.ecmwf.int/en/newsletter/163/news/forecasting-februarys-wet-and-stormy-weather-parts-europe