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User-oriented Evaluation

Probabilistic forecasting and evaluation of Tropical Cyclones

Aug 23,2019

Leads: Helen Titley, Munehiko Yamaguchi, Linus Magnusson

Ensemble forecasting of tropical cyclones (TCs) is vital in capturing the situation-dependent uncertainty in the track and intensity forecasts for existing storms, and in providing probabilistic information about tropical cyclone genesis, but there is huge potential to increase the pull through of ensemble-based uncertainty and probabilistic data in to operational TC forecasts and warnings. Initial work focussed on gathering information on the current and potential use of ensemble forecasts in operational TC forecasting, via a questionnaire to TC forecasting centres. This included asking for examples where probabilistic forecasts have been successfully integrated in to operations, occasions where hurdles have prevented them from being fully utilised, and where further model or product development and/or user-oriented evaluation should focus to help encourage their wider use. The results were presented at the Beijing HIWeather workshop, and at the 9th International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (IWTC-9) in Hawaii in December 2018. A paper describing the questionnaire results has been accepted for publication in a IWTC-9 special issue of the journal Tropical Cyclone Research and Review in autumn 2019.



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